A new report from the U.S. Census Bureau reveals the nation’s fertility rate has declined nearly every year since 2007. Report authors George M. Hayward, a statistician and demographer at the Census Bureau; Luke T. Rogers, a senior research scientist and demographer at the Census Bureau; and Shannon Sabo, a statistician and demographer at the Census Bureau, said the national decline “masks substantial geographic variation.”
Nationally, the General Fertility Rate (GFR) fell from 69.5 in 2007 to 53.1 in 2025, the lowest level reported in the national data series, which dates back to 1909. In 2007, the national GFR was just below 70 (69.5), when total fertility rates were about 2.1 births per woman, generally considered the replacement level. In 2024, the GFR was 53.8 and the total fertility rate was 1.6.
According to the research, the South had the highest GFR at 55.8, followed closely by the Midwest at 54.7. The West had a GFR of 51.0, while the Northeast had the lowest rate at 49.9. The report notes there are clusters of high-GFR counties in many, but not all, states. High-GFR counties were found in southeastern North Carolina extending into South Carolina and in southern Georgia extending into northern Florida.
Moving westward, many states have at least one cluster of counties with high GFRs. The report found only a few states without any counties reporting a GFR above 60, including all of New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont.
“One key pattern emerges from the graphic right away: Counties with the most births are often not the ones with the highest fertility rates. In fact, the data suggest the opposite: Counties with the highest numbers of births frequently have fertility rates below the median of all counties,” the report stated.
More populous counties tend to have more births because of their size, according to the data, but fertility rates can be influenced by a variety of factors, including the population’s age structure and other social and economic conditions.
Counties with both higher birth totals and higher fertility rates were uncommon among large U.S. counties, but there were a few standouts in Texas. Among all counties with at least 20,000 births in 2025, the three highest fertility rates were all in Texas:
● Dallas County: 37,108 births, GFR of 62.6.
● Harris County: 65,753 births, GFR of 59.2.
● Tarrant County: 27,795 births, GFR of 57.0.
Meanwhile, micropolitan counties tended to have fewer total births but higher fertility rates than metropolitan counties. Counties outside metro and micro areas tended to have the fewest births but also the highest fertility rates among county types, including some rates exceeding 120. With only a few exceptions in each group, the differences among county types were stark.
“Ultimately, fertility is one important piece of population change, but it’s not the only one. Populations also change due to deaths, domestic migration and international migration, components that also have varying impacts across the United States,” the report said.
