Import volume at the nation’s major container ports is forecast to hit a new all-time record this month, according to the latest Global Port Tracker released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
The increase is driven by retailers stocking up ahead of expected tariff increases, according to the report. Temporary 10 percent Section 122 global tariffs that took effect in February are set to expire July 24, but a new round of tariffs related to forced labor is expected to be imposed by the Trump administration as early as August.
“This year’s early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August and other trade uncertainties,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said, noting continued supply chain impacts from the conflict in Iran.
“The busy back-to-school selling season has already started, and the winter holidays won’t be far behind, so retailers have been working to get products into the U.S. and ready to go before new tariffs can potentially drive prices higher. Despite ongoing economic headwinds, consumers are continuing to spend, but affordability is a key factor affecting their spending habits,” Gold added.
U.S. ports covered by the Global Port Tracker handled 2.24 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in May, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 14.9 percent from a year earlier, when imports were down sharply because of last year’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, and up 10.1 percent from April.
“Import volumes have risen sharply, with strong growth likely continuing into July,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. “Much of this increase reflects frontloading ahead of expected tariff increases.”
Ports have not yet reported June numbers, but the Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.33 million TEU, up 18.7 percent from a year earlier. That would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.77 million TEU, up 2 percent from the same period in 2025.
July is forecast at 2.47 million TEU, up 3.3 percent from last year and topping the previous monthly record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022 as the economy bounced back from the pandemic. Imports are expected to drop to 2.22 million TEU in August, down 4.5 percent from a year earlier. September is forecast at 1.99 million TEU, down 5.7 percent from a year earlier; October is also forecast at 1.99 million TEU, down 3.8 percent; and November is projected at 1.92 million TEU, down 5.2 percent.
The May-through-July period is expected to be the busiest of the year. The peak shipping season, which historically centered around October, has moved earlier in recent years because of factors ranging from port labor disputes to expected tariff increases. Imports totaled 25.4 million TEU in 2025, down 0.3 percent from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
