Retail store theft levels are stabilizing, but external theft and fraud continue to rise, according to a new study from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and the Loss Prevention Research Council, and sponsored by Sensormatic Solutions. “The Impact of Retail Theft & Violence 2026” report found retailers experienced a 12.4 percent decline in shoplifting incidents and an 8.1 percent decrease in retail merchandise theft in 2025 compared with 2024. However, other forms of external theft, fraud and scams increased during the same period.
The report said the findings highlight the evolving tactics of organized retail criminals, who are increasingly exploiting both physical stores and digital retail environments.
“After years of rising in-store theft, retailers are beginning to see levels stabilize, driven by investments in technology and employee training to strengthen store security and improve response to these crimes,” said NRF vice president for asset protection and retail operations David Johnston. “However, significant challenges remain as organized criminals continue to exploit vulnerabilities throughout the retail environment, as seen in the rise of various fraud schemes and thefts including cargo theft, phone scams and gift card fraud.”
According to the report, the decline in shoplifting and merchandise theft can be attributed, in part, to retailers’ ongoing efforts to evaluate, implement and refine security measures designed to deter theft and reduce losses. Enhanced interior and exterior security systems, along with store- and employee-specific safety protocols, have contributed to the improvement. Retailers have also strengthened their ability to analyze loss patterns and evaluate the effectiveness of security measures against different types of theft.
While traditional shoplifting declined, the report found a troubling increase in more sophisticated forms of external theft. Retailers reported increases in repeat offenders (50 percent), organized retail crime-related incidents (40 percent) and walkout or pushout thefts (37 percent). Fraud also continued to climb, with retailers reporting increases in phone scams (69 percent), loyalty fraud (51 percent) and gift card theft or fraud (42 percent).
“Trusted research is essential to understanding these threats and how they continue to evolve,” said University of Florida research scientist and Loss Prevention Research Council executive director Read Hayes, Ph.D. “As these risks shift and shoplifting rates stabilize, the retail industry must confront the growing challenges of fraud and external theft.”
Violence also remains a significant concern. Retailers continue to report increases in homelessness-related disruptions and guest-related incidents. In response, 72 percent are investing in management training, 65 percent are expanding employee training, and 61 percent are implementing risk intelligence technologies, among other workplace violence prevention measures designed to enhance safety for employees and customers.
Reporting theft to law enforcement also remains limited. Consistent with last year, 63 percent of retailers said they report fewer than half of store-related theft incidents. The most common reasons for not reporting include low-dollar losses or incidents that do not meet felony thresholds (60 percent), as well as concerns about a lack of law enforcement response and follow-through (54 percent).
